Putin as a prisoner of geography
Russian invasion: Explained everything with Geography
Maps explain everything about Putin’s politics
It all starts with Pizza…
Yes, Pizza, whose joint thin wedge meets at Poland.
Let me explain…
Russia is the largest country in the world with a symbolic animal as a bear. However, Russians called them Medved, “the one who likes honey,” albeit bear gets ferocious when it observes an existential threat.
Poland
It is the corridor from which Russia has been invaded twice, once by Nepolean in 1812 and then Hitler in 1941.
Both nations are inexorably linked in history. Historical differences entangled both countries from the Katyn massacre and the deaths of Red army soldiers at POW camps. AND THE TRUST IS NOT ESTABLISHED.
As a NATO member, it is also a wall and staging post for NATO troops, and Russia considers it a buffer zone of NATO. According to Theodore Karasik,
“Poland is at the tip of NATO’s spear against Russia at this juncture,”
Mainly after Ukraine’s invasion image of Russia as a neo-imperialist regime has grown, and Poland considered it an existential threat and ready to be the front line of NATO.
Actually, there are two Russia, one is western, and one is Asian. And the politics of combined Russia revolved around only western Russia.
Russia is determined to become a global power, aiming to control Eurasia and the region between the Baltic sea and the Black sea.
North European plain
As a gateway to Europe, this plane is crucial to Russia. However, NATO’s presence in this region is a blow to its plans.
The North European Plain starts from France to Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, straight into the Urals of Russia beyond Moscow.
And from this flat plain, Russia has been invaded or was fighting once every thirty years from this region.
For example, the Baltic states (Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia), once an indispensable part of Russian defence, are now NATO members. The Russian access to the Baltic sea and limited warm water ports are also gone.
Incapable Russia further became a global power. Baltic states control the Baltic sea, which indicates the importance of Kallingard for Russia, where trade throughout the year continues, and Russia stationed their baltic fleet there at the heart of Europe.
Russia and Putin’s strategy’s main driver is geography. And Putin considers NATO’s presence near the border as an existential threat.
What does Russia want?
Russia originates from the east Slavic tribe separated from Proto-Indo Europeans with the arrival of Vikings. They established Kievan Rus under Rurik at Kyiv and regions along the Dnieper river.
The arrival of Mongols forced fledging Russia to reside in Moscow. Then its expansion starts with Tsar the great, to peter, Catherine, and then Soviets Union.
Still, the Mongol insecurity, Hitler, and the Napoleon invasion haunt Putin.
During the era of the Soviet Union, Russia resembled the borders of the Russian Empire, extending to Finland and then Poland, and had complete control over the Caspian sea and the black sea.
Look at the map for a clearer picture…
Similarly, in twentieth-century Russia, after the 1945 second world war, Russia occupied the territories of defeated Germany; it increasingly began to resemble the old Russian empire.
And with the emergence of NATO in 1949, it became more cautious of its territories, especially from the western side.
Now there was a massive ring around Moscow securing Russia from all sides. Starting at the arctic, which is too cold to operate military actions, then baltic regions to Ukraine, then the Carpathian mountains as a buffer zone to the Caucasus, then the black sea, the Caspian sea, and extending toward the Urals. And beyond the URAL is Siberia (the coldest region) expanding to bring strait and pacific ocean no threat is from there). Nature protected Asian Russia geographically.
P.S. That’s what Russia wanted ideologically. PROTECTION FROM ALL SIDES.
Geopolitics and Putin Russia
However, with the collapse of the USSR emerged 15 independent nations.
All nations in NATO or Warsaw Pact still have a role to play.
The countries in Warsaw Pact against Nato can be divided into three sects.
Neutral are Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan all produce their energy and have fewer reasons to alienate either NATO or Russia.
Pro-Russia is Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Armenia. Due to their Russian minority and economic dependence on Russia.
The pro-Western group is almost the majority of countries in the Warsaw Pact have joined NATO. And Nato is getting closer and closer to Russia’s borders, stationing their weapons there.
The map better explains the situation below…
From the above picture, Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine require an explanation.
Moldova is not a NATO member, so the attack on Moldova would not trigger article 5 of NATO. Just like Baltic states are protected, Moldova is not. Moldova as a former member of the USSR fears invasion like Ukraine.
Moldova is geographically important because as the Carpathian mountain curves around to become the Transylvanian alps, beyond the mountain is a plain leading straight to Russia and attached to the black sea.
Russia has some weapons stationed in Moldova, like the Baltic states, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.
The countries contain ethnically Russians as minorities. The region of Transnistria of ethnic Russians can be used to trigger events there.
Georgia lies across the black sea bordering Turkey, Armenia (a Russian ally), Azerbaijan, and Russia.
Russia already invaded Georgia in 2008, but now a little important for Russia because Russia already has troops stationed there as a result of the war. Second, Russia has troops stationed in Armenia, also a member of CSTO.
Russia also has troops and Caucasus mountains along the way leading to Georgia.
However, NATO membership of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine could spark a war (As in the case of Ukraine).
THIS LEADS US TO UKRAINE
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine became the independent country it had wanted to evolve for centuries. However, as NATO became closer and closer, Russia concentrated hard on Ukraine.
The fate of Ukraine was disputed even before the dissolution of the USSR behind the closed doors of George HW Bush’s administration.
The people of Ukraine were keen to get a separate entity, even in the eastern region, but that was more than hurtful for Russia. Westerns were eager to draw a line between Russia and NATO; Ukraine was a berth to maintain peace in Europe.
But what if this berth was irritating to KGB officers residing in Dresden? As US ambassador Robert Strauss said,
“The most revolutionary event of 1991 for Russia may not be the collapse of Communism, but the loss of something Russians of all political stripes think of as part of their own body politic, and near to the heart at that: Ukraine.”
In my opinion, Putin goes far as to deny the existence of Ukraine’s history, which is a flat lie.
To ensure Ukraine remains a buffer zone for Russia, Putin cannot tolerate a pro-western government in Ukraine.
Why is Crimea so important?
Putin can tolerate neutral Ukraine, which will not become the frontline of NATO. The pro-western government in Kyiv sustained NATO weapons and a naval base that could threaten the only warm water port Russia could access on Sevastopol black sea that could not stand.
Russia cannot risk it, and Putin will not let it happen.
All of this explained why Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. According to him also,
“Russia found itself in a position it could not retreat from. If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this.”
Ukraine and Russia War
AND UKRAINE MEMBERSHIP IN NATO IS DANGEROUS ENOUGH FOR PUTIN TO START A WAR.
Putin first wanted to replace the Kyiv government; however, after months of hard work, he changed plans. Russian forces started retreating from Kyiv and failed to capture Antonov airport, which can be used as a base to enhance strategic depth.
Experts also agreed that Ukraine’s urban areas are three-dimensional trains and have the edge over Russian forces. Buildings and underground spaces in Ukraine’s hands were strong points of defence.
Kyiv was transported from a lively city to a military defence post. According to Boston,
“A prepared defense is the worst-case scenario for an attacker.”
Liberation of Donbas
Putin claims to liberate the minority Russian population in the eastern region of Ukraine as a reason to reshift the focus on the east part.
The tactic is similar to what has been used and will be used in Moldova, Kazakhstan, Baltic states, Belarus, etc.
Andrei Kortunov, the head of the Russia of Russian international affair council, said that Putin needed a victory; he wanted to show something as an accomplishment.
And the control over Odesa, Luhansk, and Kherson can be presented as a victory.
P.S. I’m not a communist nor a capitalist. I just shared what I have learned.
